The Effects of Assessment Quality on Revenue Volatility

This paper examines the relationships between assessment quality, property tax revenue volatility, and other revenue volatility using panel data of all 100 counties in North Carolina between 2003 and 2007. Findings suggest that characteristics of the property tax base are the most important predictors of property tax revenue volatility among counties over time. Specifically, increases in assessed value and years in which a mass revaluation occurs are most influential in determining property tax revenue volatility. The second stage of analysis reveals that population, nontax revenue dependence, property tax dependence, and assessment quality have the greatest influences on volatility of other revenues among counties over time. The effect of assessment quality on nonproperty tax revenue volatility is conditional upon a county's property tax dependence.
Carroll, Deborah A. and Christopher B. Goodman. 2011. The Effects of Assessment Quality on Revenue Volatility. Public Budgeting & Finance 31 (1): 76–94.